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63 About this deal
The survey found that 73% of Republican women say they will “definitely” cast a ballot this election, while only 64% of Democratic women and 52% of Independent women say the same. Overall, 72% of Republicans say they’ll definitely vote, compared to 67% of Democrats. In each of the four Democratic-held seats targeted by the GOP (New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia) polls now show the incumbent Democrats ahead of their challengers. The senate polls look particularly bad in Arizona, where Mark Kelly is polling eight points above Blake Masters, who once favored abortion rights but now supports a nationwide ban and a “federal personhood law” for fetuses. There aren’t any competitive Senate races this year in any of these big blue states. But there are several swing House races in these places and Graham’s call for a national abortion ban is ready-made ammunition for the Democrats running in the suburbs of Los Angeles, Chicago and New York City. In his second installment , he covered the story of the recent election for the Boise Board of Education, in which Republican Steve Schmidt, an incumbent, was up for re-election. Considering that Trump won Idaho's capital city with 73 percent of the vote, it made sense to assume Schmidt would win again. But as Moore explains, Schmidt had been endorsed by a far-right extremist group, the Idaho Liberty Dogs, that led a campaign against the local library, calling their LGBTQ+ and sex ed materials "smut-filled pornography." According to Moore, they even showed up at local Extinction Rebellion climate strikes brandishing AR-15 assault rifles. Republican women (73%) are more likely than Democratic (64%) or independent women (52%) to say they’ll definitely vote in the 2022 #MidtermElections.
Women in states like California, Illinois and New York who thought they had nothing to fear from draconian state bans on reproductive rights in places like Texas, Idaho and Alabama now have lots to worry about, thanks to the ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. Just start introducing yourself to your neighbors on your street (or in your apartment building) and ask them to help you get out the vote in #Roevember! Tell them it will be fun! Every weekend we’ll do something cool with each other to make Roevember a success! And yet post- Dobbs , it is these same center- and center-right swing voters, especially white women, who political commentators are relying on to define November’s electoral outcome, expecting them to switch parties away from their reliable GOP home. This was political folly in Texas in 2014, and it was political folly nationally in 2016, and it will be political folly in 2022. Certainly it is possible that Republican women are angry about the end of abortion rights, even as they have spent years voting for lawmakers who promised to end same. It is very hard to affirmatively change a long-held political affiliation in a matter of weeks or months, and especially hard to accept that hardships you thought other people deserved might soon apply to you and your family. Those realizations are meaningful, but bound to encounter more than a few months’ worth of resistance.
By Sophia A. McClennen
Since huge majorities of Americans support Roe v. Wade and prioritize climate action, we think this will be an historic mid-term when voters reject the idea of 5, unelected justices and their accomplices in Congress making these existential decisions by fiat in our democracy, adversely impacting millions of women and their families. With the addition of support for Roe v. Wade to our national climate change voter's guide, for every incumbent and challenger for the U.S. House, U.S. Senate and Governors, Vote Climate U.S. PAC will help inform voter's decisions on climate-action and pro-choice candidates. It’s a cute story. But as I’ve been pointing out for weeks now, Dobbs won’t save the Democrats in November. Dobbs wasn’t helping Democrats enough even when gas prices were going lower. Now, they’re trending up again and may continue to do so through Election Day. Framing the upcoming vote as a mass uprising of nonviolent civil resistance is exactly Moore's plan. As he explains , his goal isn't just to offer the public another version of the truth; it is also to call out the problems with media coverage. "Much of what many in the media are telling you is patently false and just plain wrong," he writes. "They are simply regurgitating old narratives and stale scripts. They are either too overworked or too lazy or too white and too male to open their eyes and see the liberal/ left/progressive/working class and female uprising that is right now underway." The (mostly) men who pass abortion bans do so with the political help of white women voters who (wrongly) believe that we and our daughters will always be able to access the uniquely righteous abortions to which we are entitled and others are not. Another unlikely victory came in an August special election in upstate New York’s 19th congressional district. Democrat Pat Ryan, running with a near singular focus on abortion rights, edged out his Republican opponent in a swing district where President Biden won only narrow support in 2020.
The most recent hit to GOP was a Democratic victory in a special congressional election in a competitive suburban district in New York. The winning Democratic candidate, Pat Ryan, made his campaign a referendum on the Dobbs decision, and it paid off big time. The new member of Congress might have won an even more decisive victory if Graham had proposed his national abortion ban before the special electionI believe in the power of women voters, but I dread pinning the outcome of one election—a meaningful one with dire consequences, to be sure—on whether “women,” in general, can turn a dangerous and disheartening tide. While men get a pass for either supporting or ignoring abortion bans as if they live their lives unaffected by the formation and sustentation of families, women and pregnancy-capable people have long been uniquely tasked by pollsters and strategists, who haven’t given much credence at all to the lived experience of abortion, with somehow overturning the abortion bans that prevent us from deciding if, when, and how to create our families. But writ large, women are unlikely to save abortion access in one fell swoop, not because the majority of us are not angry about losing access to abortion—we are—but because the question of how to restore abortion access is deeply complicated, and because losing access to abortion is not now and may not be, in the coming months and years, enough to turn a key number of white women away from the other benefits of white supremacy that the GOP promises us. So here is the unsurprising, uncomplicated reality of abortion in this country: The majority of Americans support abortion access and most people who have abortions align themselves with religious groups that either explicitly seek to outlaw abortion or that doctrinally disavow abortion as a pregnancy choice. I call this tension “uncomplicated” because when most folks do not want to be pregnant, evidence shows that they will seek not to be, whatever their political or religious persuasion. People’s actual actions around abortion show that they believe in their own access to it, whether or not they’d admit it to a pollster, or ever vote for pro-choice lawmakers. And lots of other folks have no religious qualms with abortion at all! Yet here we are, a nation of people who have long believed that our government shouldn’t force people to stay pregnant against their will, staring down total abortion bans in over a dozen states and significant restrictions in a half-dozen more, because voter suppression, disenfranchisement, gerrymandering, and abortion stigma have deeply warped the way that the U.S. regulates, and, in many cases, outlaws abortion care. Truth #16 : As Alex Jones has now been fined a billion dollars for his lies, that is nothing compared to the punishment other Republicans are going to get on November 8th.
In fact, for a while, it appeared as though the nature of the 2022 midterm elections had changed. According to polls, liberal women with a soft spot for abortion were more motivated to vote than before. In the grocery store last month, I noticed a rather homely woman sporting a “See you in Roevember” t-shirt. Further, if the news media tells you the results are a foregone conclusion , that also depresses turnout. I mean, if you are told over and over again that you are going to lose no matter what you do, why bother voting? Even more important, research shows that if the media suggests an election will be close, turnout increases. Some scholars have speculated that the fact that right-wing news outlets reported that the election was close in 2016 elevated the Trump vote, while smug reporting from more liberal outlets, assuming Clinton would win easily, depressed her vote. Scholars of media effects know that when news coverage focuses primarily on negative personality coverage, i.e., the "horse race," turnout is depressed . When media focuses on policy, however, including contentious issues like abortion, turnout improves. So all the attention to Biden's supposed unpopularity is not helping. NYT: Our analysis shows that the Kansas vote on abortion rights would be approved by voters in all but 7 states.In the final weeks before the midterms, however, the question looms: Will Roevember become a reality? According to reproductive-rights leaders and political analysts, the answer is not as tidy or triumphant as the catchphrase.
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